The disarray in the Republican contest for Colorado governor continued as the newcomer in the race anointed himself as a the front-runner and a top contender’s campaign suffered a major jolt.

Tom Tancredo, the former congressman and two-time losing candidate for governor, said his nomination as the Republican nominee is “a done deal, almost” even as he warned of a nasty race ahead.

“I will tell you right now, this will be the ugliest campaign you’ll see,” he said in Denver, “because the other side has only one chance of beating me. … And that is to turn me into the biggest devil who ever lived, a racist, a white supremacist, all that junk.”

Tancredo made his remarks Wednesday on a three-stop tour to launch his campaign, a day after announcing his bid. He began to explore a run after being outraged that Republicans didn’t speak out against the cancellation of a conference hosted by a white nationalist organization, the VDARE Foundation, where he was scheduled to speak.

Tancredo, an immigration hardliner, sat on the VDARE board of directors until recently, when he started to look at a bid for governor, he told The Denver Post in an interview.

The Southern Poverty Law Center says the organization is anti-immigration and promotes white nationalism — but Tancredo and the Colorado Republican Party suggest the center is a left-wing activist organization.

Later in the day, the campaign manager for Republican rival George Brauchler announced he departed after six months. The move will leave Brauchler, the 18th Judicial District attorney, without a campaign leader for the foreseeable future and comes after weak fundraising spurred questions about whether he can mount a successful campaign.

Ryan Lynch left the campaign Monday as anticipation mounted about Tancredo’s entry into the race. Both candidates are trying to court conservative activists, but Tancredo’s prominence in the party gives him the edge against Brauchler, the prosecutor of the Aurora theater shooting case who is making his first statewide bid.

Lynch issued a statement that celebrated the campaign’s work to date. He declined to comment further because he signed a nondisclosure agreement with the Brauchler campaign. Brauchler did not return a message seeking comment.

Brauchler is mentioned as a possible candidate for attorney general, too, but he repeatedly has said he wants to run only for governor. Attorney General Cynthia Coffman is a potential Republican candidate for governor, too, and may make a decision about whether to enter the race soon.

If she exits her current post, it could complicate the GOP picture further, as U.S. Rep. Ken Buck may seek the attorney general’s office and his wife, state Rep. Perry Buck, and other candidates may look at a run for his 4th Congressional District seat.

The Republican nomination for governor in Colorado is drawing national attention. State Treasurer Walker Stapleton, a Bush family relative, and investment banker Doug Robinson, a nephew of Mitt Romney, are elevating the status with their bids.

Anti-establishment forces are taking an interest, too. Donald Trump adviser Steve Bannon talked to Tancredo at a three-hour meeting earlier in the weeks before he announced the campaign, but it’s unclear how involved he will be in the race.

Republicans running for Colorado governor in 2018:

When the Colorado Public Employees’ Retirement Association in September crafted its plan to shore up the retirement fund’s $32 billion unfunded liability, its board of directors sent a near-unanimous message: To navigate the politically treacherous waters of pension reform requires nothing short of “shared sacrifice” from taxpayers, employees and retirees.

Last week, Gov. John Hickenlooper sent a message of his own: Taxpayers have already sacrificed enough.

“I took the partisan politics off the table and I tried to look at the long-term stability of PERA,” Hickenlooper told The Denver Post. “This seemed to me to be the way to make it as fair as possible.”

The Democratic governor’s PERA policy announcement last week caught many on both sides by surprise, drawing praise from conservatives, and leaving the left largely silent, as union and retiree advocates scrambled to educate their members on what the latest proposal would mean for them.

In short, the governor’s version would nix PERA’s proposed increase to government contributions, replacing it with a larger cut to retiree cost-of-living raises, which would drop to 1.25 percent a year from 2 percent today.

For current employees, the governor’s plan is a mixed bag. Their contributions would increase by two percentage points, instead of the three percentage points backed by the board. But many would lose retirement benefits in the future unless higher cost-of-living raises were restored.

In a Friday interview, Hickenlooper said today’s public workers and the government agencies that employ them are getting a bad deal that’s making it increasingly difficult for the government to compete with the private sector for talent.

Most state agencies, school districts and other governments represented by PERA today are required to contribute 20.15 percent of an employee’s salary — some of which came directly from employee raises. Most employees contribute another 8 percent of their pay on top of that.

“They (employers and employees) are both getting a worse deal than anyone in the private sector,” Hickenlooper said. “And retirees are getting more than twice as good (a deal) as anyone in the private sector.”

Once the pension’s finances recover, Hickenlooper added, retiree cost of living raises should be the first thing restored.

“I believe in pensions,” Hickenlooper said. “Trust me, I am sympathetic, and I’ve gotten a lot of phone calls.”

As for PERA, executive director Greg Smith at a Thursday town hall took a diplomatic approach, saying he was encouraged that the governor’s plan meets the board’s goal of full funding within 30 years — even if he took a different route to get there.

On Friday, board chairman Timothy O’Brien, too, said he was “delighted” the governor had made PERA funding a priority. But he stuck by the board’s plan as preferable to Hickenlooper’s approach: “I think the shared sacrifice is the right way to go. I don’t know how the General Assembly will see that.”

It remains to be seen if Hickenlooper’s position will help or harm the chances of reform passing in a politically charged election year.

With Hickenlooper taking a more conservative stance, the Republican-led Senate may have political cover to take a harder line in negotiations. And if taxpayer contributions are harder to come by, public sector unions — a major Democratic campaign donor — may ramp up the pressure on lawmakers to kill this attempt and roll the dice on a more friendly political climate in 2019.

Another wild card is state treasurer Walker Stapleton — a leading Republican candidate for governor, who for years has tried to sound the alarm about PERA’s financial state. Many conservative lawmakers may look to him to guide the GOP response.

On Friday, Stapleton said he was “pleasantly surprised” by the governor’s proposal, but said it doesn’t go far enough. He believes PERA still relies on overly optimistic investment assumptions, now set at 7.25 percent a year.

“I hope that this stops their proposal dead in its tracks,” Stapleton said.

Much like last session’s major battles over transportation and a state hospital fee, the Senate Finance Committee is likely to be the linchpin of any proposal. Its three Republican members for years have pushed for conservative pension reforms that would cap taxpayer spending, diminish the influence of unions on the board of directors and offer all public employees the option of switching to a 401(k)-style defined contribution plan.

But two of its Republican members — Sens. Owen Hill and Jack Tate — also supported a PERA-backed proposal last year to shore up the judicial fund with increased contributions.

Tate on Friday said he’s already working across the aisle to mediate a solution, and declined to take a firm stance in light of those negotiations.

“I’m very serious about trying to get something done,” Tate said. “There’s a significant cost of waiting. For each year we wait without a reform, the magnitude of the liability that’s underfunded grows.”

Colorado Attorney General Cynthia Coffman will enter the crowded, messy Republican race for governor Wednesday, saying she is the candidate that can bridge the prosperity divide between urban and rural Colorado.

“There are policy issues that I think need to be addressed, and that’s really where my interest lies,” Coffman told The Denver Post in an exclusive interview. “Being a lawyer is great — it’s my calling, it’s my profession, I wouldn’t change it. But I believe having been in government in Colorado for almost 20 years, I know now what it takes not only to be governor, but to lead the state.”

The one-term top prosecutor faces a difficult path to victory in a race against a handful of candidates with big names and more campaign cash, particularly given her more moderate approach on social issues. But she dismissed concerns, citing her recognition among voters in polls, adding: “There’s always room for a smart woman.”

Coffman enters the race about a week after former Republican U.S. Rep.Tom Tancredo jumped in and shook up the contest with his firebrand ideology and association with Steve Bannon, a former adviser to President Donald Trump.

The contest also includes establishment Republicans Walker Stapleton, the state’s treasurer and a Bush family relative; Doug Robinson, an investment banker and nephew of Mitt Romney; George Brauchler, a district attorney and the Aurora theater shooting prosecutor; and Victor Mitchell, a businessman and former state lawmaker who put $3 million into the race.

“I have spent the last three years traveling the state and talking about issues like the ones I’ll be talking about in a race for governor,” Coffman said. “I don’t feel like the money matters as much as the message and the contacts I have made with voters.”

Coffman long considered entering the governor’s race and traveled the country in recent months to raise her profile. One sign that she might not seek re-election as attorney general came in October when reports showed she had raised just $10,600 since July 1 for her attorney general campaign.

Stapleton has already locked down many top Republican donors, but Coffman said she’s confident “money is going to come.”

Sure to surface in the campaign is the unsuccessful attempt Coffman in 2015 helped lead to oust then-Colorado GOP Chairman Steve House in a saga that involved accusations of extramarital affairs and threats. But when asked about the episode, she brushed it aside.

“I don’t think I need to talk about it a lot because I think it’s old news,” she said. “To me, Steve and I resolved that situation several years ago and it’s not something I give a lot of thought to.”

To run her campaign, Coffman hired Clinton Soffer, the former regional political director for the National Republican Senate Committee, where he worked for Colorado U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner, whom he helped elect in 2014. Coffman also brought on Caroline Wren, a longtime Republican fundraiser to raise money for the campaign.

Coffman in June announced she is splitting from her husband of 12 years, U.S. Rep. Mike Coffman, who is seeking re-election in the 6th Congressional District. She won the race for attorney general in 2014 after serving as deputy attorney general, counsel for Republican Gov. Bill Owens and as a top state public health official.

In the past year or so, Cynthia Coffman has taken moderate stances on several hot-button social issues, including LGBT rights and immigration. She is representing the state in its defense of a gay couple denied service by a Lakewood baker in a case now before the U.S. Supreme Court and has worked to protect people living in the U.S. illegally from becoming victims of fraud.

Coffman’s bid for governor opens a vacancy for attorney general, although a slate of conservatives are likely to seek the post. U.S. Rep. Ken Buck, R-Windsor, has expressed interest, as has state Rep. Cole Wist, a Republican from Centennial.

The delay in her decision, however, leaves Republicans with a major fundraising deficit compared with the five Democrats vying for the job.

Democratic candidate Phil Weiser raised more than $700,000 for his campaign heading into October, with the former dean of the University of Colorado Law School continuing to haul in large donations over the past several weeks.

WASHINGTON — Republican gubernatorial candidate George Brauchler is weighing a run for attorney general now that Cynthia Coffman, currently in the post, has entered the governor’s race, his campaign said Wednesday.

Brauchler already has reached out to some of his potential rivals, according to several GOP sources — notably U.S. Rep. Ken Buck, R-Windsor, who said earlier this year that he might seek Coffman’s job if she left the post.

Buck said in an interview Wednesday that he was staying put in Congress.

“I’m running for the 4th Congressional District — running for re-election,” Buck said. “Several months ago, I looked at … the possibility of running for attorney general, and (I) decided I really like what I am doing and want to continue my work in D.C.”

Brauchler’s campaign confirmed in a statement that he has entertained the idea of switching races. Brauchler, who serves as the 18th Judicial District attorney, made his name prosecuting the Aurora theater shooter.

“The AG race in Colorado will be bigger than George, and the list of people qualified and dynamic enough to win a down-ticket race at this late date, less than one year out, is short. So, is he taking the calls and hearing people out? Yes, he is,” wrote Sean Tonner, a Brauchler adviser.

If Brauchler were to leave the race for governor, it would add another twist to what’s so far been a roller-coaster contest.

Already, the gubernatorial campaign has seen one notable candidate enter and exit — Democratic U.S. Rep. Ed Perlmutter — and the field on both the Democratic and Republican sides is one of the deepest and widest in years.

The competition probably is one factor in Brauchler’s contemplation of a new path.

His financial firepower pales in comparison to that of GOP rivals Walker Stapleton or Victor Mitchell. Plus, the recent entry of Republican firebrand Tom Tancredo would make it hard for Brauchler to win a primary by consolidating support among hard-line conservatives.

Still, a run for attorney general would have its own challenges.

Other Republicans have expressed interest in running for attorney general, including state Rep. Cole Wist of Centennial, and George Leing, who lost in 2014 to Democratic U.S. Rep. Jared Polis of Boulder. Polis is now one of the many candidates looking to replace Gov. John Hickenlooper in 2018.

Said Leing of the AG race: “I’m looking at this. I’m looking at this seriously.”

Should Brauchler or, for that matter, any other Republican ultimately run for attorney general, he or she would face a sizable fundraising deficit with at least one of the five Democrats vying to become Colorado’s top law enforcement officer: Phil Weiser.

Weiser, a former dean of the University of Colorado Law School and a one-time Obama administration official who got into the attorney general’s race in May, had hauled in more than $700,000 for his campaign heading into October.

Financial reports filed with the Colorado secretary of state’s office show that the pace of donations flowing into his campaign has not let up in recent weeks.

Also running on the Democratic side are Michael Dougherty, assistant district attorney for the 1st Judicial District in Jefferson and Gilpin counties; Brad Levin, a Denver attorney; Amy Padden, a former state and federal prosecutor; and state Rep. Joe Salazar of Thornton.

Candidates in the Democratic contingency, generally speaking, are running on a platform of pushing back against the Trump administration’s policies.

Also surely to be chief issues in the attorney general’s race are environmental regulations and the oil and gas industry.

Just after midnight, at a bar near the state Capitol, a state lawmaker says Rep. Steve Lebsock discussed sexual acts and tried to grab her by the elbow and get her to leave with him.

“I told him no. I told him he needed to leave,” state Rep. Faith Winter, a Westminster Democrat, told The Denver Post in an interview Friday. “I told him he needed to go home. He started grabbing my elbow. He was trying to get me to go out of the bar. He was very angry.”

The alleged sexual harassment occurred in May 2016 as lawmakers celebrated the end of the legislative session at what is known as the Sine Die Party at Stoney’s Bar and Grill in downtown Denver.

The tense encounter ended when another lawmaker intervened, but the story remained hushed until Winter came forward Friday, the latest in an ever-growing list of men and women who are confronting their assailants across the country as part of the #MeToo movement.

Lebsock, a 47-year-old Thornton Democrat, apologized for his behavior but said he does not remember making the comments and was drinking heavily at the party. He denied trying to grab her by the elbow.

“I’m extremely sorry that Rep. Winter has been hurt, but I can also say honestly that I do not remember ever saying anything inappropriate to Rep. Winter (that night),” he said in an interview.

Two more women came forward hours later, putting their names to accusations that Lebsock made unwanted sexual advances toward them at political events and meetings. House Speaker Crisanta Duran and other prominent Democrats urged Lebsock to resign. He declined and called on his accusers to make a formal complaint.

“The people of Colorado are tired of dirty politics and tired of anything that appears underhanded or out of bounds (and) will not be accepted by our citizens,” he said in a statement. “We should take these accusations seriously, and through the normal legal channels.”

The mounting accusations add to the questions about what happened after Winter’s encounter as Lebsock rose to committee chairman and now a candidate for state treasurer. The details are just now emerging.

What happened at the party

The state House adjourned at 10:42 p.m. on May 11, 2016, ending the 120-day session. Soon, lawmakers, lobbyists, staffers and reporters filtered down to Stoney’s with a mix of exhaustion and relief to loosen ties and grab drinks.

Lebsock and Winter began talking, but soon the conversation turned, she said. “He used explicit and suggestive language about how happy we could make each other and didn’t we deserve to be happy — it was in the end of session,” she said. “(He began) describing different sexual acts that we could do, and I turned him down. And the more I turned him down, the more aggressive and angry he got. He was standing over me. He was saying things like, ‘Why can’t you just leave? This is good for both of us, I know you can make me feel happy.’ ”

Winter, who is married with two kids, glanced to the crowd and called for state Rep. Alec Garnett, a Denver Democrat. “I said, ‘Alec, I need you over here,’” Winter recounted.

Winter asked Garnett to get Lebsock a ride home, saying he was intoxicated, and Garnett took him outside and offered to call a ride-sharing service. Garnett said Lebsock cursed at him and walked away.

Winter then told Garnett what happened. State Sen. Dominick Moreno, then a House Democratic leader, also heard the story from Winter and confirms her account is consistent. But neither Garnett nor Moreno heard Lebsock’s remarks to Winter, they said.

The next day, Winter said she told House leaders, including Speaker Dickey Lee Hullinghorst, about what happened — the start to conversations about whether to file a formal complaint.

Lebsock said he didn’t learn of her accusations until 10 days after the party and only when Winter emailed him. In the email, provided to The Post, she wrote: “At the Sine Die party you said completely unacceptable things that were unwanted and you made me feel unsafe. As I continued to turn you down, you became increasingly agitated. Your advances were unsolicited and unwanted. When I left that night I was ready to write it off as you being drunk and a jerk.

“However, other people were there to observe the behavior and that has (led) to others talking about the (sic) your behavior. Since then, I have been contacted by other women that have experienced the same treatment, the same unwanted advances and the same harassment.”

She concluded: “My biggest concern is that this has happened to others and this seems to be a pattern of behavior. I expect and need a higher standard from my caucus members.”

Lebsock, who divorced in 2015, contacted her and asked her to describe what happened that night, but she didn’t feel comfortable. He said he didn’t know the specifics of the allegations until contacted Friday by The Post.

“I want to be as sensitive and thoughtful in my answer as possible because this is a very serious accusation,” he said in the extensive interview. “I need to be as thoughtful as possible and also tell the truth. I can honestly tell you that I do not remember saying anything like that to Faith, ever. But in fairness, in complete fairness, we were all drinking. I had had quite a bit to drink that evening, as did most of the folks there. … So I can’t say with certainty about every single word that was spoken. I just honestly do not remember saying anything close to that in conversations with Rep. Winter.”

Winter considers whether to file a formal complaint

In the months that followed, Winter avoided Lebsock — their offices were near each other in an office building on Sherman Avenue, north of the Capitol. She once sneaked into the building to get files, taking off her shoes to avoid being heard by him.

In the days after she told House leadership, the legislature’s attorneys became involved and presented Winter with the options under the workplace policy that applies to lawmakers. Under the rules, she could file a confidential formal complaint and start a process in which the House speaker would launch an investigation. Or she could take her story to the media.

Democratic leaders and allies urged her to file a formal complaint. Instead, she resolved it privately, telling Lebsock in a meeting with House leaders that she would not take action. In return, Lebsock agreed to stop drinking at legislative functions and seek counseling.

But, she told Lebsock, if she heard other complaints of harassment, she would go public.

“I decided not to go public and file a formal complaint for a whole host of reasons,” Winter recalled. “I was worried about retribution. I was worried about making Steve angrier. I was worried about not being believed. I was worried about my reputation, my ability to do my job and serve my constituents. And so at that time, through this process, he apologized and said he was going to stop drinking and get therapy. And I told him that I was not filing a charge or going public right now. But if I ever heard of it happening again, I would be the first one.”

Hullinghorst, who stepped down as speaker when her term ended, confirmed Winter’s account of the meeting. She said Lebsock “basically admitted what happened.”

Duran, the current House speaker, knew of Winter’s allegations in 2016 when she served as majority leader. But she made Lebsock chairman of the House Local Government Committee for the 2017 legislative term.

The move dismayed colleagues who knew Winter’s story. And Friday, after the allegations against Lebsock became public, Duran temporarily removed him as committee chairman.

House committee appointments are at the speaker’s sole discretion, but a Duran spokesman said she would not comment on her decision to make him chairman. Still, House leaders acknowledged the situation when they worked to assign legislative spaces for women away from Lebsock’s office.

In March, Lebsock announced he would seek the nomination for state treasurer to fill the post being vacated by term-limited Walker Stapleton, a Republican.

Lebsock told The Post he planned on “moving forward” with his campaign amid the allegations..

Winter decides to go public

The #MeToo campaign is raising awareness of sexual harassment and assault in state capitols across the nation as more and more people come forward with stories. The Post contacted Lebsock on Tuesday — before learning about Winter’s allegations — to ask him about the movement.

Lebsock applauded the #MeToo campaign for how it “empowered victims of sexual assault to come out and tell their stories. I think that this is incredibly important … part of the healing process for victims.”

He said he didn’t know of “too many instances of sexual assault happening in the statehouse” and said he is “not aware of any accusations of sexual assault.”

Winter put a #MeToo post on Facebook on Oct. 15. She also said she was molested at age 4. But her post spoke to the Lebsock incident, too.

“There is, for most women, an entire array of experiences — from something as severe as being molested as a 4-year-old to not feeling safe when my colleague will not say no and getting angry — to unwanted advances and smaller forms of sexual harassment,” she wrote on Facebook. “My post was about the whole array of experiences I’ve had as a woman, not just that incident.”

Winter didn’t speak publicly about Lebsock until this week when she learned about another woman making an accusation against him from a public-radio reporter. The KUNC report on Friday included allegations — some made anonymously — that he intimidated or made unwanted sexual advances toward nine lawmakers, staffers and lobbyists.

“This behavior has to stop,” Winter said. “Since I am a sitting representative, I have more power than this lobbyist and more of an ability to do so and if I can protect other woman and stop this from happening again, I feel like it’s my responsibility.”

The KUNC and Post reports prompted calls for resignation from a host of Democratic leaders, including Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne, who is campaigning for governor.

More women come forward with accusations

Hours after Winter’s claims, two other women came forward to The Post with allegations about Lebsock.

Holly Tarry, a former animal welfare lobbyist, said Lebsock made unwanted sexual advances more than once from 2013 to 2016. In one instance, she said, he asked her to have sex. She told him no, she said, and he made a crude joke in response and dropped the matter.

“Our relationship was one where I was constantly pushing back on him, saying, ‘You can’t talk to me that way,”’ she said.

Tarry said she quit her job as a lobbyist “because of that kind of treatment, and not just from him,” expressing concern about the atmosphere at the Capitol.

She came forward with her story after she read Winter’s account. “I think that it’s so hard and so scary to come forward that if I have additional supporting evidence of her story, I want to share it,” she said. “I think she would do that for me.”

Cassie Tanner said she was working as a legislative aide to a Democratic state lawmaker in 2014 when she encountered Lebsock at The 1up bar during a Denver Young Democrats event. She said he reached over and unbuttoned one of the buttons on her blouse, making a comment to the effect of “That’s better.”

“I was really embarrassed,” she said. “I kind of didn’t want to make a big deal of it. He was a colleague. He is in a position of power. I had heard stories about him and been warned about him by other lobbyists and seasoned aides. He certainly had a reputation, so I feel like even talking to him at the bar — I felt embarrassed because I felt like I should have known something like that would happen even talking to him.”

Tanner, who is still involved in politics, said she has tried to avoid Lebsock ever since. She was at a recent meeting where he spoke about his run for treasurer.

“Just seeing him up there — smiling and everyone acting like it was such a great thing — just made me ill,” she said. “I went outside. I couldn’t even listen to him to talk.”

The newly formed Colorado Lobbyists Association says it was aware of one harassment allegation against Lebsock and that it counseled the accuser to make a report.

“It’s an incredibly difficult thing to do,” said Don Knox, who leads the group that formed about a month ago and which represents registered professional lobbyists. “Going public can threaten your effectiveness as a lobbyist because you rely on having professional business relationships with all government officials.”

Lebsock did not directly address the new allegations when contacted late Friday. But he noted his statement asking accusers to file formal complaints.

“I will be honest during this process, and hope others will be honest also. We can be respectful to the process and respectful to everyone involved,” he said in the statement. “At the end of the road, I believe this experience will help me become a better person, and I only hope the very best for everyone involved.

“I have worked my entire adult life protecting women, children and the most vulnerable. I will continue fighting for working class families and people without a voice at the Capitol.”

Republican George Brauchler, once a leading contender for governor, announced Monday he will suspend his campaign and instead enter the race for attorney general.

“My decision to run for office has always been about my commitment to serving Colorado far more than it has been about the title of the elected position,” he said in a written statement. “That commitment remains just as strong as we make this important change.”

Brauchler called the decision “neither easy or obvious,” but the move was expected for days as his path to victory in the governor’s race began to narrow when former U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo, a firebrand and favorite among conservative activists, announced his bid for the state’s top job. And when Attorney General Cynthia Coffman jumped into the race, it left a wide open race to replace her.

The Republican Attorneys General Association immediately issued a statement endorsing Brauchler, a move that showcases the party’s support and gives the candidate more fundraising power.

“George Brauchler is exactly the type of leader we need running for public office,” said Arkansas Attorney General Leslie Rutledge, the group’s chair, in a statement. “He is experienced, committed, and driven to service.”

Brauchler, the 18th Judicial District attorney and prosecutor of the Aurora theater shooter, won early support from the party faithful, but his bid for governor was jolted Nov. 1 by the abrupt departure of his campaign manager and plagued with questions about whether he could raise enough money to win.

Among the Republicans seeking their party’s nomination in the governor’s race, Walker Stapleton and Victor Mitchell have already amassed larger financial war chests. And the addition of Tancredo made it hard to see Brauchler getting the nomination by lining up the overwhelming support of hard-line conservatives.

Those factors make Brauchler’s decision a smart one, said former Colorado GOP chairman Dick Wadhams.

“(Brauchler) will be a very strong candidate for attorney general because of his respected service as Arapahoe district attorney and since it appears the Republican Attorneys General Association has endorsed him it makes it likely he will avoid a primary,” Wadhams said.

Brauchler’s decision comes less than a week after Colorado Attorney General Cynthia Coffman, a fellow Republican, jumped into the race for governor, vacating the spot as the state’s top law enforcement officer. It’s also yet another shakeup in the crowded and complicated Colorado gubernatorial race.

The contest includes at least five people running on the Democratic side.

“Any day now, I expect John Elway, Todd Helton, Wonder Woman, and Santa Claus to jump into this (governor’s) race,” Brauchler said in his announcement that he’s switching races. “In fact, if you’re reading this, you have a 1-in-7 chance of running for Governor of Colorado.”

Brauchler’s addition to the attorney general’s race is the first among what’s expected to be several Republicans who jump in.

Other GOP members who have expressed interest in running for attorney general include state Rep. Cole Wist of Centennial, and George Leing, who lost in 2014 to Democratic U.S. Rep. Jared Polis of Boulder.

Democrat Phil Weiser, former dean of the University of Colorado Law School and a one-time Obama administration official who got into the attorney general’s race in May, has already hauled in more than $700,000 in donations.

The four other Democrats running for attorney general have been drawing in tens of thousands of dollars in donations, too.

They include Michael Dougherty, assistant district attorney for the 1st Judicial District in Jefferson and Gilpin counties; Brad Levin, a Denver attorney; Amy Padden, a former state and federal prosecutor; and state Rep. Joe Salazar of Thornton.

“Progressives on the other side of the political aisle had spent many months raising mountains of cash to capture the position that plays such a vital role in protecting our state and way of life,” Brauchler said in his statement . “It is a powerful position that must not fall into the hands of someone who would use it to advance extreme ideological positions, to legislate through litigation, or to pick winners and losers in our economy.”

The candidates running as Democrats have said they are generally running on a platform that includes as a central component pushing back against the Trump administration’s policies, on topics from immigration to the environment.

The oil and gas industry is also expected to be a focal point in the attorney general’s race, as well as in the contest for governor.

Questions over oil and gas development, education policy, water rights, legal marijuana and mental health in Colorado dominated what was overall a friendly debate Monday night between seven Republican candidates running for governor.

However, the men on stage — candidate Cynthia Coffman, Colorado’s attorney general, was not able to attend due to a scheduling conflict — quickly honed in on a common enemy. Jared Polis, the U.S. congressman vying for the state’s top job from the Democratic side, came under fire from a couple of the GOP candidates.

Colorado treasurer Walker Stapleton hit the Boulder Democrat the hardest, saying Polis’ tough stance on oil and gas drilling in the state will give Coloradans “an economic future none of us can afford in Colorado.”

“The threat that matters is Jared Polis,” Stapleton said toward the end of the evening, noting Polis’ massive personal wealth that could fund a long and bruising general election campaign next year.

Republican firebrand Tom Tancredo, who only entered the race less than two weeks ago, also called Polis out by name and focused first and fiercest on the issue that he has become synonymous with: illegal immigration.

“None of these people should be here to begin with,” he said during opening remarks of those who have entered the country unlawfully.

He also criticized cities in Colorado, like Denver and Boulder, that he said are giving safe harbor to those who are in the United States illegally.

“It is against the law to have a sanctuary city,” Tancredo said at the forum, which was hosted by the Republican Women of Weld at The Historic Fort in Fort Lupton.

Aside from Tancredo and Stapleton, the forum featured Doug Robinson, an investment banker and nephew of Mitt Romney; Victor Mitchell, a businessman and former state lawmaker; Larimer County Commissioner Lew Gaiter; Steve Barlock, co-chair of President Trump’s Colorado presidential campaign; and Greg Lopez, former mayor of Parker who also served as the Colorado state director of the Small Business Administration.

The past couple of weeks’ lead-up to Monday’s forum has featured significant political shifts in the 2018 gubernatorial contest, with Tancredo’s entry into the race last month and Coffman’s decision to throw her hat in the ring last week.

Aside from Coffman’s absence at the debate, Republican George Brauchler, who was once considered a leading contender in the race, was also not there. The district attorney for the 18th Judicial District announced on Monday that he will suspend his gubernatorial campaign and instead enter the race for attorney general.

The contest for governor includes at least five people running on the Democratic side, the most notable being Polis. They have said they are generally running on a platform that includes as a central component pushing back against the Trump administration’s policies, on topics from immigration to the environment.

The oil and gas industry is also expected to be a focal point in the attorney general’s race, as well as in the contest for governor.

On that topic, Mitchell echoed a common theme Monday, saying that rules and regulations are smothering the energy industry in Colorado and need to be rolled back.

“We are most regulated state for oil and gas in the country,” he said.

In all, he advocated getting rid of 100,000 pages of regulations currently guiding businesses in the state.

Robinson said oil and gas extraction has a $32 billion economic impact in the state and the industry is responsible for creating many high-paying jobs.

“Those are the jobs we want in Colorado,” he said.

Recent efforts by cities and counties in Colorado to place stricter limits on oil and gas activity is a “threat” to the industry, he said. All the candidates agreed that the industry should be regulated at the state level — not at the municipal level.

Lopez said the tensions over oil and gas are akin to many of the battles taking place between outlying parts of the state, where energy and agriculture dominate, and the urban Front Range.

“This country is divided, our state is divided between urban and rural,” he said.

Tancredo labeled the growing anger over oil and gas activity closer to homes and schools in the suburbs north of Denver as an “irrational opposition.”

“It’s based on a hatred for that industry and the development that comes with it,” he said.

The candidates were also asked a question about whether they thought legalized marijuana was contributing to mental health issues in the state. Several candidates said there is a connection, with Stapleton making the most forceful remark.

“Mental health is a manifestation of legalized marijuana,” he said.

The candidates all lined up together on school choice as an integral part of public education, despite voters in conservative Douglas County last week choosing to put in a school board that is distinctly anti-voucher.

“The single most important thing we have to do is get parents involved and that includes school choice that involves education,” Gaiter said.

Barlock was the most strident of the candidates on several issues, including education, labeling teachers unions as “crooked.”

“We need to be strong against the unions,” he said.

Several candidates on Monday called for additional water storage in the state to help Colorado capture more of it and allow less of it to flow out of state. They said several large-scale reservoir projects need to move forward.

A major credit rating agency on Thursday warned that the Colorado pension fund’s deteriorating finances have put the state’s creditworthiness at risk, and announced that it had changed the state’s rating outlook to negative.

If the state’s pension fund doesn’t adopt meaningful financial reforms with the next year or two, S&P Global Ratings’ analysts said, the state’s strong AA credit rating could be downgraded.

“The negative outlook on all ratings reflects the state’s long trend of annually contributing less than (actuaries say are needed) to its retirement systems, as well as decreasing pension funded ratios that have fallen well below those of similarly rated states,” S&P credit analyst Oladunni Ososami said in the report.

The advisory from Standard & Poors won’t immediately increase the state’s borrowing costs, but if a formal downgrade occurred, it could cost the state down the road. The state legislature this year approved nearly $2 billion in mortgagelike certificates of participation on state-owned buildings to pay for transportation projects, whose long-term interest costs will depend greatly on how rating agencies view Colorado’s financial stability.

The prospect of a downgrade — which S&P’s analysts said had a 1-in-3 chance of occurring — could ramp up pressure on state lawmakers to fix the pension’s $32 billion unfunded liability sooner than later.

In a statement, state Treasurer Walker Stapleton — who has warned of the possibility of a credit downgrade — said “we must put politics aside” to find a solution.

“For a number of years now, I’ve been speaking about the dangerous potential of a negative outlook and eventual downgrade of Colorado’s credit as a result of our growing pension liability, and now we’re staring that reality in the face,” said Stapleton, a Republican.

“This negative outlook is the first step toward a downgrade of the state’s credit rating, which has the potential to raise the cost of borrowing across all state agencies. That would make it harder to pay for things our state needs, like new roads and schools.”

The Colorado Public Employees’ Retirement Association manages the retirement benefits of more than 566,000 current and former public employees. But its financial health has been deteriorating for years. Lackluster stock market returns, insufficient contributions and longer employee lifespans have combined to push the pension to 58.1 percent funded, under PERA’s projections.

Under a more conservative accounting method sometimes prescribed by the Governmental Accounting Standards Board, Colorado’s pension fund would owe $50.8 billion in unfunded benefits to current and future retirees, leaving it it only 46 percent funded.

The PERA board and Gov. John Hickenlooper have offered competing plans to shore up its funding, but it remains unclear what — if anything — will pass political muster at a divided statehouse next year.

Colorado Treasurer Walker Stapleton on Wednesday said pension benefits should be frozen and cost-of-living raises for public sector retirees eliminated until the state retirement system digs itself out of its deep financial hole.

The Republican gubernatorial candidate — who is building his campaign in part around the Public Employees’ Retirement Association’s second reform battle in a decade — also proposed raising the retirement age, giving all employees the option of choosing a 401(k)-style plan instead of a pension, and adopting significantly more conservative investment assumptions that would increase the pension’s unfunded liability by at least $18 billion.

The proposal is politically fraught, and unlikely to garner support from Democrats. And retiree advocates blasted the plan, saying it would cheat public-sector workers out of retirement benefits.

Stapleton unveiled his “reform principles” in a morning conference call with reporters, giving lawmakers a fourth set of recommendations to consider in the upcoming debate over how to address PERA’s growing financial troubles. The system provides and manages retirement benefits to 566,000 current and former public employees.

PERA’s board in September endorsed a model similar to the last round of reforms, in 2010, that would cut retirement benefits and increase contributions by employees and taxpayers to close the $32 billion gap within 30 years. In November, Gov. John Hickenlooper unveiled a plan of his own that would adopt most of PERA’s reforms but largely shield government agencies from additional contributions to the pension by cutting retirement benefits further.

The staff for the Joint Budget Committee, a six-lawmaker panel that writes the state budget, has also offered suggestions on the matter, noting with alarm that current employees are paying more for worse benefits than their predecessors.

If PERA’s pitch is that “shared sacrifice” is needed to shore up an underfunded pension, Stapleton’s proposal looks to recast the problem as one caused by overpromised benefits, arguing that the state and school districts can no longer afford annual increases in pension payments.

The plan lacks specifics — it would take an actuarial analysis (a robust sort of financial study that PERA outsources to a private firm) to determine how long retirees would have to forgo cost-of-living raises to shore up the fund. But one thing is clear: If his suggestions were followed, it would represent the most dramatic overhaul of PERA of any proposal to date.

Stapleton wants to lower PERA’s annual investment return assumptions from 7.25 percent to between 5 percent and 5.5 percent, a drop that would bring the system in line with the conservative accounting methods prescribed by the Governmental Accounting Standards Board.

In practice, no public pension system in the country has adopted a rate of return that low — and doing so here would increase the unfunded liability from $32 billion to more than $50 billion. But those accounting standards are the ones used by credit rating agencies such as S&P Global Ratings, which recently gave Colorado a negative credit outlook because of its pension problems.

“We are using the wrong math to solve the problem, which is going to result in more incrementalism this time around, just like Senate Bill 1,” Stapleton said, referring to the 2010 round of reforms that PERA officials said would fix the problem.

Seven years later, the pension isn’t projected to run out of money as it was after the Great Recession. But it hasn’t rebounded the way it was supposed to, either. The 58.1 percent funding ratio that PERA reported at the end of 2016 is even lower than the 64.7 percent it was in 2010, when the last reforms were adopted.

“I think that they either lied to 560,000 public workers or they’ve been so egregiously wrong that they should be fired,” Stapleton said.

The plan drew a swift rebuke from Lynea Hansen, executive director of Secure PERA, which represents public-sector retirees and workers. By setting the rate of return lower and eliminating the taxpayer contributions proposed by the PERA board, retirees and employees would be left to shoulder the bulk of the $50 billion load.

“We’re happy to see he finally has a proposal,” Hansen said. “Up until now, our rallying cry has always been ‘Tell us what you think should happen,’ and what he thinks should happen is employees and retirees should be screwed over.”

PERA’s cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, has changed repeatedly over the years. From 1994 to 2000, retirees received a benefits increase of 3.5 percent or at the rate of inflation — whichever was less. In 2001, the inflation variable was removed, and the COLA was set at a fixed 3.5 percent. In 2010, it dropped to 2 percent annually.

Actual inflation in the Denver-Boulder-Greeley consumer price index averaged 2.4 percent from 2000 to 2009, and 2.3 percent since 2010. Social Security payments, which PERA members don’t receive, increase based on the nationwide consumer price index.

It’s not clear how long Stapleton’s freeze on raises would need to last to reach his 80 percent funding target, a provision also employed by Rhode Island in 2015 when it adopted reforms to its own pension.

But for context, PERA’s board proposal isn’t projected to reach 80 percent funding until 2040.

PERA’s board recommended a two-year freeze in cost-of-living raises followed by a reduction to 1.5 percent, while Hickenlooper proposed a further drop to 1.25 percent. Under Stapleton’s plan, annual raises would follow inflation after the freeze expires.

The average annual pension in 2016 was $37,000 for a school district retiree and $40,000 for a state retiree, according to PERA financial reports.

It should come as no surprise that John Sie, the founder and former chairman of Starz Entertainment group and the man regarded as the father of digital television, has a keen eye for detail.

As does his wife, Anna.

Few things slip past them, whether in business, philanthropy or everyday life.

Yet you could have knocked them over with a feather when toward the end of cocktail hour at Collectors’ Choice 37, two of their favorite entertainers, opera singers Hao Jiang Tian and Wei Wu, began serenading them.

“Did you know about this? I didn’t know about this; did you?” John and Anna asked each other as the 400 who’d come to see them honored at the Denver Art Museum’s signature fundraiser broke into applause after Tian, a star of the Metropolitan Opera, and Wu, who recently appeared in the Santa Fe Opera’s world premiere of “The (R)evolution of Steve Jobs,” sang several of the couple’s favorite arias.

John Sie, a DAM trustee since 2002, and his wife are among the museum’s most valued supporters. In February they pledged $12 million to support the construction of a new welcome center at the entry to the museum’s North Building. In previous years they have made generous contributions to the Frederic C. Hamilton Building Capital Campaign and the Annual Fund Leadership Campaign. Their support also enabled the DAM to host “Xu Beihong: Pioneer of Modern Chinese Painting,” a 2011 exhibition that featured some 60 works by the iconic Chinese artist.

The Anna and John J. Sie Welcome Center, said museum director Christoph Heinrich, will provide visitors with “a wide-open arms greeting, a welcoming beacon to visitors and the neighborhood, while creating a clear and accessible point of entry to the North Building.”

The Sies’ daughter and son-in-law, Michelle and Tom Whitten, chaired the gala with Sharon Magness Blake and Ernie Blake; Rita and Navin Diamond; Michelle and Mike Fries; Denise O’Leary and Kent Thiry; and Sue and Don Sturm.

Renovation of the North Building caused Collectors’ Choice to be held at a venue other than the museum: the Hyatt Regency Convention Center. There, guests enjoyed cocktails, pizza (a nod, no doubt,  to Anna Sie’s Italian heritage) and the operatic interlude in the Capitol Ballroom foyer before sitting down to dinner and dancing to the music of the Atlantic City Boys.

Gov. John Hickenlooper was one of several who praised the Sies for their commitment to making the world a better place.

“They build things that last,” he said, citing not just at the museum, but the Denver Film Festival, “Which wouldn’t be where it is without the Sies;” the Sie Cheou-Kang Center for International Security and Diplomacy and the Anna and John J. Sie International Relations Complex, both at the University of Denver; the Global Down Syndrome Foundation; the Linda Crnic Institute for Down Syndrome; Denver School of Science and Technology and the BioFrontiers Institute, just to name a few.

In accepting their award, Anna Sie observed, “It’s hard to believe that it has been over 60 years since we came to the U.S. — John from China and me from Italy — but we are so proud to be part of this country. To be able to leave this world a little better has been our privilege.”

The $670,000 that was raised at Collectors’ Choice 37 goes to Vision 2021, a capital campaign that includes the renovation of the North Building, a structure designed by Gio Ponti and considered to be the largest work of art in the museum’s collection.

Guests included former Ambassador Christopher Hill and his wife, Julie; Ellie Caulkins; Jane Hamilton; Denver City Councilman Wayne New and his wife, Leslie; Trygve  and Vicki Myhren; William Matthews and Laura Barton; Fred and Jana Bartlit; Barry and Arlene Hirschfeld; Amanda Precourt and Andrew Jensdotter; Eva and Dr. Denis Lanier; Chris and Joy Dinsdale; Dick and Cathey  Finlon; Robert and Lisa Kessler; Nancy Lake Benson; Melinda Douglas; Bob and Liane  Clasen;  Paul Ramsey; Ken and Judy Robins; Will LaBahn; Dick and Marcia Robinson; Bob and Myra Rich; Greg and Sharon Maffei; Norm and Sunny Brownstein and state Treasurer Walker Stapleton with his wife, Jenna.

Joanne Davidson: 303-809-1314, partiwriter@hotmail.com and @joannedavidson on Twitter

Colorado lawmakers return to the Capitol this week for a 2018 legislative session that’s threatening to derail before it even starts.

A cloud of political controversies and steep policy challenges is making this year’s term one of the most unpredictable and uneasy in recent memory.

The Republicans who control the Senate and the Democrats who lead the House are entering the session with divergent policy agendas. On two of the most consequential and difficult issues — overhauling of the state pension fund and improving the state’s roads — neither side sees eye to eye on solutions, let alone whether it’s a priority.

The backdrop for the 120-day term, which begins Wednesday, is likewise poisonous. An October special session ended in partisan finger-pointing, and it’s an election year in which some lawmakers are even competing against each other for statewide office.

Moreover, scandal plagued the offseason. An outside consultant is studying a culture at the Capitol that some believe tolerates sexual harassment after complaints were filed against four lawmakers for alleged bad behavior. A new lawmaker takes a seat after apologizing for making numerous comments viewed as racist. Others faced questions about alleged ethics violations. Another was arrested at Denver International Airport for bringing a loaded handgun through security. And a Democrat in the narrowly divided Senate changed her party affiliation to independent.

The tumultuous atmosphere left lawmakers little opportunity to build on a much-touted 2017 session or to foster better connections in a building where relationships are political currency.

“I’m thinking when you put all that into the formula of starting the session on Jan. 10, who knows what is going to happen?” said state Sen. Rhonda Fields, D-Aurora, reflecting concerns from more than a dozen other lawmakers and lobbyists interviewed ahead of the session. “I’m feeling anxious because I don’t really know what to expect.”

The uncertainty — and split political chambers — is prompting a number of interest groups to bypass the legislature and pursue ballot initiatives to boost school funding, add more money for highways and overhaul health care.

Still, other top lawmakers are expressing optimism, and term-limited Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper, who is entering his final session, wants to see meaningful policy changes. In prior election years, lawmakers still found room to agree and send more than 600 bills to the governor and tackle big issues. And a year ago, more than 60 percent of the legislation introduced made it to the governor’s desk, according to legislative leaders.

“I’m very optimistic. I’m not skeptical,” said Senate Majority Leader Chris Holbert, R-Parker.

PERA will prove early test for state lawmakers

Perhaps no one issue illustrates the unpredictability of 2018 better than the looming fight over PERA, the $44 billion Public Employees’ Retirement Association.

The state pension system has given glowing reports about its financial health to lawmakers and its members for years, touting the success of the last overhaul to stabilize the fund in 2010. But PERA’s latest financial reports — which factor in more conservative investment returns and longer life expectancies — now tell a dramatically different story. PERA is not projected to run out of money, but it’s funded ratio, 58.1 percent, is even worse than it posted during the recession.

So far, top officials have put forward three major proposals, one each from the Democratic governor, the PERA board of directors and the Republican state treasurer, Walker Stapleton, who is running for governor. But no one’s quite sure what direction state lawmakers will take.

None of the three plans is easy to swallow. Each requires steep tradeoffs and more money from taxpayers, public employees or retirees to close the $32 billion gap in unfunded benefits owed. The lead legislative negotiators in each party are not committing to any specifics, and some prominent Democrats, including Senate Minority Leader Lucia Guzman, are now suggesting the situation is not urgent enough to compel a fix this year.

Mike Feeley, a former top Democratic lawmaker, said he expects the pension overhaul to “consume a lot of time.” And he suggested the discussion will prove more difficult with the passing of Greg Smith, PERA’s former director who died unexpectedly in December.

“He was one of the best thinkers on public pensions, and that leaves a big gap,” said Feeley, who is now a lobbyist at Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, one of the top firms at the statehouse.

In the GOP-led Senate, Republican Sen. Jack Tate is working on a proposal that he says will be within the “same orbit” as the three public proposals — meaning some combination of higher contributions into the fund, coupled with cuts to cost-of-living raises for retirees and other tweaks to how benefits are accrued.

In the House, Majority Leader KC Becker, D-Boulder, says she’s in discussions with Tate, but is stopping short of endorsing specific policies until the Senate passes a bill her chamber can consider.

“People don’t realize the trouble that PERA is in,” Becker said. “And we have a job to do at the legislature in educating other legislators, and in finding the right set of knobs to turn, and understanding how much to turn those knobs.

“That is a math problem,” she continued, “but it’s also a political problem and a policy problem.”

Indeed, getting a package through both chambers will be a tall order. Conservatives for years have tried to shield taxpayers from higher employer contributions. But the only way to do that is to cut retirement benefits or take a bigger bite out of the paychecks of public workers — a key Democratic constituency.

Meanwhile, Stapleton, who proposed an aggressive approach that immediately drew rebuke from public sector retirees, is looking to present a compromise proposal with Hickenlooper.

As introduced, both plans would prevent taxpayer contribution rates from rising above current levels, but Stapleton’s would eliminate cost-of-living raises until the pension was in better financial shape.

“A proposal that comes jointly from the governor’s office and our office will be in a very strong position to be considered by the legislature, and that’s ultimately what we want to do,” Stapleton said, adding that he and the governor already agree on one key point: “Taxpayers have done enough to fix this system.”

Hickenlooper, however, played down the suggestion, saying the two haven’t talked. “I don’t think anyone has the golden nugget of what the perfect solution is,” the governor said.

Either way, this year’s effort is a far cry from what happened in 2010, when lawmakers entered the session with a bipartisan bill to introduce on Day One.

“It’s going to be harder to win over unanimous support in my caucus based on the particulars of a reform plan, and I think it might be harder for the other caucus to come to a sense that we need to do something,” said Tate, of Centennial.

Transportation once again a tough topic this session

Unlike prior sessions, state lawmakers are starting with an optimistic budget outlook projecting between $196 million and $340 million in new dollars — an unexpected windfall from federal tax reform. State Sen. Lois Court, a veteran lawmaker and Denver Democrat, said it’s “a blessing and a curse.”

“The blessing is we do have extra money, and the curse is everyone in the legislature has an idea of how to spend it,” she said. Even though it’s easier than years where budget cuts are on the table, Court said it’s still difficult because lawmakers need to decide “which real people do we prioritize over other real people.”

A year ago, the top Republican and Democratic lawmaker agreed to make transportation spending a top priority. But the $1.9 billion in borrowing earmarked for roads didn’t go far enough for Republican lawmakers and top business leaders who want to see taxpayer dollars dedicated to closing a deficit for road building.

Holbert, the Senate’s top Republican, said his caucus wants to use the state’s budget growth to put $300 million a year toward transportation. How it would work and the dollar figure are negotiable, he said. But already Republicans suggest Hickenlooper’s proposed $150 million earmark for roads is not enough.

“We are trying to have a respectful bicameral, bipartisan conversation and not play politics with this critical important issue,” he said.

House Democrats, though, aren’t ready to commit to a dollar amount, citing numerous unmet needs, such as education and affordable housing, that will compete for the money. And unlike Republicans, transportation doesn’t crack the top of their legislative agenda, which is focused instead on helping the middle class with pocketbook issues, such as child care costs and consumer financial protections.

Becker acknowledged it will be “a tough year for a variety of reasons. … But I think that there still continues to be a commitment to solve our problems. We’re going to do the best we can.”

The General Assembly reconvenes Wednesday to discuss a hefty list of major policy changes on topics ranging from public pensions to opioid treatment — if they can see through the political fog that makes this an unpredictable session.

The all-important 2018 election and a series of controversies that rocked the Colorado statehouse in recent months set the stage for a challenging legislative term that promises to take a different tone than a year ago, when lawmakers celebrated major bipartisan accomplishments.

The agenda for the 120-day session makes the task ahead more difficult, according to dozens of interviews ahead of the start. Here’s a look at the top eight issues and a forecast for what lawmakers and lobbyists expect in the 2018 session:

1. PERA faces difficult overhaul with big stakes

Eight years after lawmakers pulled the state pension system back from the financial brink, the Public Employees’ Retirement Association faces another watershed moment. Years of underfunding benefits to employees and retirees have collided with shifting demographics and market conditions that leave the public workers’ pension only 58 percent funded.

Much like in 2010, the PERA board has asked lawmakers to cut retirement benefits and boost contributions from public employees and taxpayers until the $32 billion funding gap is erased. But without the backdrop of a financial crisis, it is proving a tricky sell. And competing plans to address the issue from Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper and Republican State Treasurer Walker Stapleton complicate the situation.

Forecast: The math demands urgency — the longer lawmakers wait, the more expensive the problem is to fix. But the politics are another matter. Expect partisan proposals to fall flat on both sides while lawmakers negotiate behind the scenes on a reform package. Look for compromise legislation to start in the GOP-led Senate. House Democrats will wait and see what Republicans can pass out of their chamber before asking their caucus to take a difficult vote in an election year.

2. Sexual harassment scandals prompt calls for new policies

Four Colorado lawmakers faced allegations of workplace or sexual harassment in recent months as the #MeToo movement exposed what some believe is a permissive culture toward bad behavior at the Capitol. And now top lawmakers are hiring an outside consultant to conduct a review of the General Assembly’s policies on harassment.

State Rep. Steve Lebsock, one of the lawmakers facing a complaint, is rebuffing calls from his party leaders to resign, while complaints against two Senate Republican lawmakers appear to be unresolved — meaning the issue will carry into the lawmaking term.

And the outside review is due in mid-March to allow lawmakers to address the legislature’s harassment policy before adjournment in May, meaning the issue could bookend the session.

Forecast: A series of Denver Post reports noted that an initial review of the policy by outside experts suggests a major overhaul is needed when it comes to transparency and improving the process of filing complaints. It will prove a tall order for lawmakers to accomplish, but the significance of the issue suggests that top legislative leaders will need to take action as soon as possible. Whether it will spark a culture shift remains uncertain.

3. Lawmakers offer competing plans to fix Colorado’s roads

An unexpected tax windfall has lifted hopes for another infusion of transportation funding this year. But the two sides are deeply entrenched on this issue after a proposed sales tax hike died last year in the Republican Senate, and a smaller increase in road money won approval

Gov. John Hickenlooper proposed $148 million in one-time money for roads and dedicating a portion of the tax windfall in future years to infrastructure, including roads. Republicans want at least $300 million a year at the start. But legislative Democrats cite numerous unmet needs that will compete for the money, none bigger than the state’s $800 million-plus K-12 school funding shortfall known as the negative factor.

The bigger question is a long-term solution and whether lawmakers will find money for a bond that could generate money to make a dent in the $9 billion in transportation needs identified by state officials.

Forecast: Lawmakers appear poised to do something — the question is what and how much. Like last year, look for transportation advocates outside the building to play a major role in crafting legislation. The possibility of multiple ballot measures on the topic adds to the sense that both parties need to agree on a broad solution. But the conversation may be defined by how much money is available, which lawmakers won’t know for sure until the March revenue forecast.

4. Opioid crisis remains a potent issue with new legislative package

A legislative panel met for four months through the summer to craft a package of six bills to address the state’s opioid crisis, which kills one person in Colorado about every nine hours and 36 minutes.

The legislation includes proposals to impose a seven-day limit on some opioid prescriptions, allow Denver to create a supervised injection facility for drug users and seek a federal waiver to allow Medicaid to cover residential rehabilitation programs.

Forecast: Most of the interim committee legislation won bipartisan approval, and President Donald Trump’s declaration of a national public health emergency is adding attention to the issue. But not all the measures will prove easy to pass, particularly those that cost money. The toughest question is whether to allow a drug injection site in Denver, which many Republicans still consider a step too far.

5. Growing urban-rural divide is demanding more attention

A focus on rural Colorado among top lawmakers in the 2017 session culminated in millions of dollars for small town schools, hospitals and roads. But lawmakers have barely begun to address the systemic challenges needed to reverse the Colorado divide, particularly the feeling among rural areas that they are being left behind.

More to the point, the constitutional provision known as the Gallagher Amendment will trigger another round of cuts to property taxes next year and disproportionately affect rural public services. A costly pension reform effort threatens to exacerbate rural Colorado’s current teacher shortage. And lawmakers are still looking to expand high-speed internet with about one in four rural households still lacking access to broadband internet.

Forecast: There’s bipartisan momentum to extend broadband internet service to more rural homes, but the cost remains an issue. Meanwhile, expect more discussions about inequities in school funding and the rural teacher shortage with short-term fixes possible. However, a true overhaul of the school finance formula and the Gallagher Amendment may prove too tough for this year’s session. The urgency of these issues will lead some to try to bypass lawmakers by going to the ballot — not to mention provide plenty of fodder for the 2018 campaign trail.

6. Oil and gas returns to the forefront amid deadly incidents and fires

In the final weeks of the legislative session, the Firestone explosion thrust oil and gas issues into the limelight, but Republican lawmakers and the Democratic governor had little appetite for an immediate fix. Expect these issues to remain at the forefront in 2018 as Democratic lawmakers look to address issues related to the safety and location of oil and gas operations. Republican lawmakers, meanwhile, will continue to push back against what they see as over-regulation of the industry.

Both sides want to see the Colorado Energy Office re-authorized after last year’s stalemate, and a bipartisan group of lawmakers is working on legislation to investigate and fine those responsible for damages to underground lines because of digging.

Forecast: Like a year ago, the most partisan proposals are essentially dead-on-arrival in the legislature’s split chambers. But lawmakers are hopeful for compromise on issues such as flow-line mapping and a reauthorization of the Colorado Energy Office’s budget, both of which eluded negotiators in the eleventh hour of last session. Whether major bills pass may hinge on the political decision the industry makes about working with the current leaders or stalling until after the election and hoping for a more favorable political makeup.

7. Hickenlooper’s final year and his future

Hickenlooper admits he’s “a lame-duck” with his term set to end in a year, but he wants an ambitious agenda for his final session. The Democrat enters his twilight with major initiatives still not settled, particularly on issues such as transportation, broadband and water.

And the “fiscal thicket” that Hickenlooper identified early in his term involving the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights and other constitutional mandates remains an area of focus for an overhaul. His future remains a distraction, however, with his continued flirtation with seeking the White House in 2020 complicating his agenda.

Forecast: The governor will confront a number of conflicting currents in his final year. The freedom of not seeking re-election affords him more room to compromise and work across the aisle to achieve results on his outstanding priorities. But each decision comes with political implications for what he wants to do next, and his final year could be his last opportunity to make a splash on the national scene.

8. Election will help define the tone of the session

The election year complicates even-year legislative sessions, with politics infused even more into a partisan process, but it does not necessarily mean gridlock is guaranteed.

Five lawmakers are competing for state treasurer, and one is campaigning for attorney general, along with four current statewide officials who are seeking promotions or re-election. The narrowly divided state Senate amplifies the stakes of the session with just a handful of seats expected to decide which party wins power in 2019.

Forecast: Both parties will look for the edge to define the conversation for the 2018 campaign with bills that appeal to their base of support and swing voters. But the political parties’ fortunes may rest on whether they can find middle ground and get results that voters will reward in November.

The 2018 election in Colorado begins in earnest Tuesday as statewide campaigns deploy to shopping malls, street corners and parking lots to gather the 10,500 voter signatures needed to get their candidates on the ballot.

Much of the attention will focus on the governor’s race, where new campaign rules and a crowded field of Democratic and Republican candidates will make it difficult to secure a spot on the June 26 primary ballot.

For Republicans, the petition push is the first since forged signatures and lawsuits stained the 2016 primary for U.S. Senate and derailed once-promising candidates. For Democrats, it’s the first major statewide primary since 2010. And for all candidates, the decision about how to navigate the difficult path to the ballot represents the first test of strength as to whether they can win the primary and the all-important general election in November.

“We’re going to start collecting tomorrow,” said Democrat Noel Ginsburg of his campaign’s decision to begin its petition-gathering drive on the first day allowed by election officials.

In Colorado, statewide candidates for governor, attorney general, treasurer and secretary of state can qualify for their party primary ballot two different ways: by collecting voter signatures on a petition or gathering support through the caucus process.

Either approach is worthy of a reality TV show, and both are fraught with peril.

To petition, the candidates must collect 1,500 signatures from registered voters in their party in each of the state’s seven congressional districts within two months. Most often the process involves hiring collectors to stand outside populated places, such as grocery stores, and ask voters to sign a petition in support of a candidate.

But there’s a catch: A voter’s signature can only count once, so the first candidate to submit each gets credit, meaning speed matters in collecting petitions. In 2016, candidates who petitioned had 30 to 40 percent of their signatures disqualified.

The cost to collect petitions can run more than $200,000 — a huge sum in a race were the maximum contribution is a combined $1,150 per person for the primary and general elections.

But the caucus process has its own challenges.

To secure a ballot slot, a candidate must win 30 percent of the vote at the state party assembly, which limits the number of candidates who advance to a maximum of three. It all starts by winning delegates at the neighborhood-level caucus meetings March 6 — essentially a one-on-one retail politicking that favors candidates with die-hard supporters.

“When you do the math you just have to be ready,” said U.S. Rep. Jared Polis of Boulder, a Democratic candidate for governor. “Because you need to get your name on the ballot in order to win.”

How the candidates will try to make the ballot

If the candidate receives between 10 and 30 percent at the assembly, they can still use petitions to qualify for the ballot. But if they receive less than 10 percent, they are eliminated on the spot.

In 2017, Colorado lawmakers approved a major change that moved the petition-gathering period forward three weeks and put the deadline to return them at March 20. The date falls before the state party assemblies, meaning the candidates essentially have to pick one path or the other, unlike the past where candidates could more easily use the petition process as a backup option.

“This year, it’s a little convoluted,” said Craig Hughes, a top Democratic strategist advising several statewide candidates.

Polis is the one candidate seeking to pursue both avenues, and he is possibly the only candidate with the money and fan base to make it possible.

“I’m excited to be participating in the caucus process and we want to make sure we’re also ready to turn in petitions to ensure my name is on the ballot,” he said in an interview. “We’re participating in caucus, and we hope to get on the ballot through the caucus and assembly process — but at the end of the day we want to make sure that my name is on the ballot.”

Most of the other leading Democratic candidates are collecting voter signatures, worried that the crowded field will make it hard to reach the 30 percent threshold at assembly. The other candidates taking the petition route include Ginsburg, Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne and former state Sen. Mike Johnston. The campaigns for Lynne and Johnston are adding staff and contractors to do the job rather than hire a private firm, as is more customary. Johnston also said he is keeping his options open to potentially enter the assembly process at a later date.

Cary Kennedy, the former state treasurer, is the only prominent Democrat committing to the caucus. Her campaign said it shows her commitment to the party process, and taps into her statewide network.

On the Republican side, state Treasurer Walker Stapleton, investment banker Doug Robinson and businessman and former state Rep. Victor Mitchell are also collecting signatures.

“No matter who you are, it’s never a guarantee you can get in,” said Brett Maney, a spokeswoman for Robinson, about the risk of going the assembly path.

Only Tom Tancredo, a former congressman, two-time candidate for governor and favorite of conservative activists, has firmly committed to the assembly approach. Tancredo said the choice came down to the high cost of collecting petitions and the hope that an assembly win would give him a boost from the party faithful.

The GOP candidates’ decision reflects the direction of the party, said Dick Wadhams, a former party chairman. “It’s an acknowledgment that the caucus-assembly process has moved right over the last several election cycles, and it’s dominated by the more conservative wing of the party,” he said. “So if you aren’t tied to that part of the party … it’s difficult to get on the ballot at the assembly.”

Attorney General Cynthia Coffman, a Republican, remains a wild card after entering the race late. Her campaign did not respond Monday to messages seeking comment.

2016 Senate race offers cautionary tale

The chaotic 2016 race for U.S. Senate on the Republican side illustrates the challenges ahead. Darryl Glenn, then a little-known El Paso County commissioner, gave a powerful speech at the state convention that shut out his rival, state Sen. Tim Neville.

The upset left Glenn as the only candidate to emerge from the convention, saving the cash-strapped candidate the time and cost of collecting voter signatures. Three of his challengers initially failed to qualify by petition and only landed on the ballot after filing lawsuits that corrected errors made in gathering signatures. A signature gatherer for former state Rep. Jon Keyser, once a leading candidate, also pleaded guilty to forging voters’ names.

The setback cost Keyser, Robert Blaha and Ryan Frazier, and Glenn would go on that year to win the GOP primary, narrowing beating Jack Graham, the first candidate to submit petitions and the only one to do it successfully.

Ahead of the 2018 campaign, state lawmakers approved a new law that requires the secretary of state’s office to verify each signature with voting records.

A new Republican candidate out-raised the rest of the Colorado state treasurer’s field combined in the last quarterly campaign finance reports, while a Democratic lawmaker’s fundraising dried up in the wake of sexual misconduct allegations.

According to the latest filings, which covered the final quarter of 2017, state Rep. Steve Lebsock, D-Thornton, received the most recent contribution in his run for state treasurer on Oct. 17 — three weeks before allegations of sexual misconduct from multiple women sparked calls for his resignation.

Lebsock — who this week was the subject of a third formal complaint, all of which he has denied — has refused to step down from office and remains a candidate for the statewide office, even as his fundraising has withered. He raised $1,025 in the period, the least of any of the 10 candidates.

Meanwhile, Republicans continued to out-raise Democrats for the position, currently held by term-limited Republican Walker Stapleton, who is running for governor.

In an early show of strength, Republican businessman Brian Watson raised $214,614.95 in his first fundraising period since joining the race, including $18,203.55 in monetary and in-kind contributions from himself. Not only did that dwarf the second-place haul of state Rep. Polly Lawrence, a Douglas County Republican, it was more than the other nine candidates combined to raise in the quarter.

Watson spent $25,682.68 in the period and finished with $153,647.32 on hand.

Lawrence raised $55,989.75, bolstered by a $25,000 check from herself. She spent $28,958.46, and finished with $88,307.58 on hand, following her strong third-quarter haul.

Prosecutor Brett Barkey raised $14,254.16, giving himself $7,500. Routt County Treasurer Brita Horn raised $9,285 and State Sen. Kevin Lundberg of Berthoud raised $7,464.63. State Rep. Justin Everett of Littleton rounded out the GOP field with $5,386.23 raised but closed out the year with $26,460 on hand.

On the Democratic side, two new candidates led the pack. State Rep. Dave Young, D-Greeley, raised $35,604.90, rolling over $963.11 from his House fundraising committee and spending $3,692.41. He closed the year with $31,270.70 in the bank.

Charles Quin Scheibe, Colorado’s chief financial officer, gave his campaign $29,185.85, which accounted for the bulk of the $30,723.99 he raised in the period. Denver businessman Bernard Douthit raised $10,525 and ended the period with $27,621.31 on hand.

The big-dollar contest for Colorado governor came into better focus this week as the latest financial reports revealed a new fundraising record, another super PAC-styled spending group and several candidates willing to pump their own cash into the race.

The financial records also showed that two new Republican competitors — Attorney General Cynthia Coffman and former Congressman Tom Tancredo — had trouble raising money at the start of their campaigns. Tancredo netted $75,000 in donations, and Coffman garnered about $85,000.

Both candidates trailed Republican rival Walker Stapleton, who collected about $750,000 in the last three months of 2017, a record for a single fundraising period in a governor’s race. The state treasurer, who donated another $250,000 from his own pocket, filed his report after the deadline and faces the threat of a minor fine.

On the Democratic side, U.S. Rep. Jared Polis of Boulder gave his campaign more than $750,000 — the most of any candidate in that primary — putting his personal investment at nearly $1.4 million.

Cary Kennedy, the former state treasurer, raised the highest total of individual contributions among Democrats at $277,000, but rival Mike Johnston, a former state senator, finished 2017 with the most in his campaign coffer, at $732,000.

The cash influx for Republicans and Democrats put the cost of the contest at more than $13 million through the end of 2017 — a down-payment on a gubernatorial election that’s expected to break state records.

To offset Coffman’s meager haul, a new independent expenditure committee backing her candidacy called Stronger Colorado Ahead collected $158,000 in contributions in just six weeks.

Whiting Petroleum board chairman James Volker gave $100,000, making him the top donor, and Carol Mizel gave $25,000. She is the wife of Larry Mizel, one of Colorado’s top Republican financiers and a supporter of Stapleton.

An independent expenditure committee supporting Stapleton’s candidacy, Better Colorado Now, reported another $33,000, bringing its cash on hand to $738,000.

Two other committees, often referred to as super PACs, reported notable hauls. Build Colorado’s Future, which is supporting Doug Robinson, notched a $25,000 contribution from former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, who is the candidate’s uncle.

Frontier Fairness, the super PAC supporting Johnston, reported a $100,000 donation from Eric Resnick and his wife. Resnick is the chief executive officer at KSL Capital, a private equity firm that is part-owner of 12 ski resorts.

To boost their campaign numbers, two other Democratic candidates, businessman Noel Ginsburg and Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne, contributed $190,000 and $60,000, respectively, to their campaigns at the end of the quarter.

Robinson loaned his campaign $243,000 on Christmas Eve after raising just $78,000 on his own.

Earlier this year, Republican Victor Mitchell, a businessman and former state lawmaker, gave his campaign $3 million, and his bank account is the biggest in the race, at $2.2 million.

Asked about the huge war chest, Mitchell adviser David Hill said he is waiting to spend “when voters are ready to tune in” to the race. “That day will come,” Hill wrote in an email.

How much money the candidates carry into 2018 will speak volumes about their ability to gather voter signatures to qualify for the ballot or turn out supporters to the March 6 caucus.

The spending reports from the final weeks of the year show that campaigns are adding staffers to build out field operations and spending big money on polling to gauge their positions in the race.

“As Democrats, we know victory in November begins with building grassroots support early,” Kennedy said in a statement. “Talking with my fellow Democrats, hearing their concerns and sharing my ideas will energize us to win.”

A big unknown is how the super PACs in the race will spend their money to help out their candidates. The independent expenditure committees can accept unlimited contributions, unlike the campaigns, which are capped at a total of $1,150 for the primary and general election. But the committees cannot coordinate their expenditures with the campaigns.

Big money flows in down-ballot races

The cash to candidates also is flowing in other statewide 2018 races.

In the state treasurer’s race, a new Republican candidate out-raised the rest of the field combined in the fourth quarter campaign finance reports, while a Democratic lawmaker’s fundraising dried up in the wake of sexual misconduct allegations.

In an early show of strength, Republican businessman Brian Watson raised $214,614.95 in his first fundraising period since joining the state treasurer’s race, including $18,203.55 he gave to his own campaign.

State Rep. Polly Lawrence, a Douglas County Republican, raised $55,989.75, bolstered by a $25,000 check from herself. No other Republican in the six-person primary raised more than $15,000 in the quarter.

On the Democratic side, the two latest entrants led the pack. State Rep. Dave Young, D-Greeley, raised $35,604.90, rolling over $963.11 from his House fundraising committee. Charles Quin Scheibe, Colorado’s chief financial officer, gave his campaign $29,185.85, which accounted for the bulk of the $30,723.99 he raised.

State Rep. Steve Lebsock raised $1,025, the least of any candidate. He reported receiving no donations since multiple women accused him of sexual harassment in November. The Thornton Democrat has denied the allegations.

In the attorney general’s race, Democrat Phil Weiser maintained his big fundraising lead last quarter in the six-candidate race.

Weiser, a former dean of the University of Colorado Law School, hauled in more than $280,000 and had about $900,000 cash on hand heading into 2018.

Republican George Brauchler, the 18th Judicial District attorney and only GOP candidate, reported raising a little more than $215,000 over the past four months — about $120,000 of which was rolled over from his abandoned gubernatorial campaign.

The four other Democrats running raised a good deal less: Brad Levin, a Denver attorney, raised about $64,000 and former prosecutor Amy Padden hauled in roughly $41,000. Michael Dougherty, a prosecutor for Jefferson and Gilpin counties, raised just about $19,000, and state Rep. Joe Salazar, D-Thornton, took in some $24,000.

In the secretary of state’s race, Democratic challenger Jena Griswold expanded her fundraising advantage to a nearly 2-to-1 margin in cash on hand against Republican incumbent Wayne Williams.

After raising nearly $58,400 in the final three months of 2017, Griswold, a Louisville attorney, ended the year with $114,538 in the bank. She spent about $21,200.

Williams, a Republican from Colorado Springs, reported raising nearly $12,900 during the fourth quarter, ending 2017 with $58,639 on hand.  Williams’ campaign spent about $2,200.

WASHINGTON — In a surprise move, Republican Tom Tancredo on Tuesday ended his run for Colorado governor — a turnabout that comes just three months after he launched his third bid for the state’s top job and amid expectations he was the candidate to beat in the GOP primary.

The former congressman and immigration firebrand said in a phone interview that the reason for his departure was a lack of financial resources; as of Dec. 31 he had collected less than $75,000 in campaign contributions.

“The (Republican) primary is probably something I could have won, but the reality is, beyond that, it did not look all that promising because I could not raise the money,” said Tancredo, who added the $75,000 figure was half the $150,000 goal his campaign had set for his first fundraising quarter.

His abrupt decision is almost certain to breathe new life into the rest of the Republican field.

The other candidates have struggled to compete with Tancredo’s name recognition, and there was a lingering worry among some Republicans that he would cripple the GOP’s hopes of retaking the governor’s mansion.

“I think it is a very good development for the Republican Party’s chances in the gubernatorial election” said Ryan Call, a former GOP state chairman.

Not only would Tancredo’s exit would help winnow the field, Call said, but it also would reduce the focus on Tancredo’s past rhetoric, which Call described as “out of the mainstream with the way most Republicans feel.”

For years, Tancredo has been a controversial national voice on issues of immigration and he entered the race last fall in part because he was upset that fellow Republicans didn’t do more to protest the decision by a Colorado Springs resort to cancel a conference for the white nationalist VDARE Foundation.

He once said President Barack Obama was a bigger threat to the U.S. than al-Qaeda, and he met with former White House strategist Steve Bannon ahead of his short-lived campaign.

Hey Sniwflakes. You can come out if your safe spaces!

— Tom Tancredo (@TancForGovernor) January 30, 2018

Tancredo has run for governor twice before — losing the Republican primary in 2014 by about 3 percentage points — and there was a sense among GOP strategists, backed up by some early polling, that Tancredo was the candidate to beat this time.

With him out, attention is likely to shift to state Treasurer Walker Stapleton and former state lawmaker Victor Mitchell.

Both Republicans have plenty of campaign cash and the resources could help attract undecided primary voters; Stapleton raised about $750,000 to close out 2017 — about 10 times Tancredo’s haul.

Tancredo said the best way for another candidate to win over his former supporters is to concentrate on two issues.

One is support of the state’s Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights, which forces Colorado officials to get permission from voters when they want to raise taxes.

The other is opposition to so-called “sanctuary cities,” which Tancredo said are a “danger that confronts every citizen” because of their embrace of policies that support immigrants living illegally in the U.S.

Already, at least one Republican candidate has taken a step in that direction.

In a statement, state Attorney General Cynthia Coffman thanked Tancredo for bringing attention to issues such as “educating the public on the dangers of unchecked and unaccountable sanctuary cities.”

My statement on Tom Tancredo’s withdrawal from the #COGov race: pic.twitter.com/hyqv1y80YX

— Cynthia Coffman (@CynthiaHCoffman) January 31, 2018

How well this strategy could play in a general election remains to be seen.

Colorado backed Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in the 2016 election and Democrats have been bullish about their chances to replace Gov. John Hickenlooper with another Democrat — with or without Tancredo in the race.

“Even former front-runner Tom Tancredo knows there is no path to victory for Trump-style politics in Colorado,” Eric Walker, a spokesman for the Colorado Democratic Party, said in a statement.

Among the candidates in contention is U.S. Rep. Jared Polis, D-Boulder. The multimillionaire lawmaker has given his campaign nearly $1.4 million and that figure is likely to increase the longer the race goes on.

In a January 2010 letter, three members of the state pension fund’s board of directors sent a stark warning to state lawmakers: Any attempts to water down a proposed reform package could leave the retirement system, which 1 in 10 Coloradans depend on as a replacement for Social Security, in grave financial peril.

“To be frank, there is little to no room in this bill for error or modification,” the trustees wrote. “…any changes … may very well lead to further underfunding of the plan and to putting employees, employers, and taxpayers at greater risk in the future.”

It was the first in a long line of warnings that went ignored.

A Denver Post review of thousands of pages of financial reports and hours of public meeting recordings found that state lawmakers and the pension board alike ignored numerous red flags after the landmark pension reform was passed in 2010, opting time and again for political expediency at the expense of the Public Employees’ Retirement Association’s long-term financial health.

Now, PERA is barreling toward its second watershed moment in a decade. PERA has only 58.1 percent of the money it owes in future retirement checks. Its funding gap has ballooned to $32.2 billion by one accounting measure — and $50.8 billion by another.

But unlike in 2010, when PERA’s looming insolvency was triggered in part by a global financial crisis, the latest fiscal crunch was arguably self-inflicted, brought on by wishful thinking and a consistent pattern of putting hard choices off to the future.

PERA today isn’t projected to run out of money, as it was in 2010. But its financial position has grown so precarious that another economic downturn could plunge the fund back into insolvency.

As a result, the state’s credit worthiness is now at risk. At least one major school district’s rating has already been downgraded. And eight years after public workers, retirees and taxpayers embarked on a “shared sacrifice” that was sold as a long-term solution, every Coloradan is now being asked to pay an even steeper price.

The simplest explanation of today’s need for reform is that the financial assumptions used to craft PERA’s 2010 rescue plan, Senate Bill 1 in the Colorado General Assembly, were wrong. Retirees are living and drawing benefits longer than projected at the time, and investments aren’t expected to grow as quickly. But the pension’s finances didn’t need to deteriorate to the point that they have.

“Everyone has failed the citizens of Colorado and members of PERA on this — the legislature, the PERA board, and (Colorado’s) governors,” Lynn Turner, a member of the PERA board of trustees, told The Post in an interview.

“There is plenty of ‘shared blame’ to go around, just as there will need to be ‘shared sacrifice.’ ”

A house of cards

In the months that followed, even as lawmakers were proclaiming success, there was already reason to believe the reforms were a house of cards.

At a November 2010 meeting, board members were offered two dramatically different forecasts of the U.S. economy.

The rosier view, from the board’s actuarial firm, Cavanaugh Macdonald, assumed that there would be 3.75 percent inflation, and used that prediction to affirm the 8 percent rate of annual projected growth used in the creation of Senate Bill 1.

That rate was critical to PERA meeting its financial goals — the more that PERA’s investments are expected to grow, the less that taxpayers and employees need to contribute to the fund to make it solvent. But PERA’s investment consultant, Hewitt EnnisKnupp, predicted inflation would be significantly lower — about 2 percent a year.

Board members raised concerns that in hindsight have proved well-founded. Not only has the U.S. consumer price index not averaged 3.75 percent inflation since 2010, there hasn’t even been a single year of 3.75 percent inflation dating to 1991.

“I think most of the data that we saw raised questions,” Turner said. “That fell on deaf ears.”

If the board had averaged the two inflation assumptions together, it would have dropped the rate of return to 7.125 percent — a difference of billions of dollars in investment returns. A motion to reduce the rate to 7.5 percent was defeated 10-4 by board members.

Opponents of the change cited political considerations as well as financial ones in making their decision.

“I just do not want to be complicit in what’s going to happen down the road if we pass this,” board member Carole Wright said at the November meeting. “We are going to be a target for the media. The politicians are going to feel that they were betrayed by what we stepped up to the plate and said we would do.”

The uncertainty over the long-term direction of the financial markets is why the three gubernatorial appointments to the PERA board — Turner, Susan Murphy and Howard Crane — sent lawmakers a letter warning them not to stray from the bill as it was proposed in January.

Instead, compromises were made to win over votes and interest groups. The retirement age for teachers and other school district employees stayed at 58 instead of rising to 60, as it did for other public employees. Retirees were spared a two-year freeze on cost-of-living raises, and lost a single year, instead.

The PERA board endorsed the bill as amended, with a lone dissenting vote from Turner. A market rebound in 2009 had given the pension some financial breathing room, and lawmakers used every bit of it. But by 2011, the market had swung back the other direction — and the 30-year fix was already several years off course.

Chronic underfunding

By 2013, reality had set in. The assumptions Senate Bill 1 was built on? PERA’s leaders no longer believed they were correct.

That year, the board reduced the assumed rate of investment return to 7.5 percent. That added $3.1 billion to PERA’s projected funding gap and extended the time PERA needed to pay it off to 2048 — a full 10 years later than the 28-year fix that was projected at the end of 2010.

But consistently, PERA’s message to lawmakers was unchanged: Wait for Senate Bill 1 to work before tinkering with the plan.

Trouble is, Senate Bill 1 itself had a glaring flaw. The government, even under the original assumptions, wasn’t contributing enough to cover the cost of benefits.

And there was more at play than just the political compromises of 2010. It’s a trend that dates to 2003. Each year, PERA’s financial advisers calculate what public agencies should contribute to afford the benefits they were promising their employees. And each year, the government had been underfunding it.

Back in 2000, PERA was actually overfunded. Then, state lawmakers and former Gov. Bill Owens, a Republican, boosted benefits and cut contributions.

When the dot-com bubble burst, PERA’s balance sheet cratered. Officials responded, but slowly. Instead of immediately paying the full amount the government owed to meet its funding goals, contribution hikes were phased in. Before the contributions caught up, the stock market crashed, wiping out 26 percent of PERA’s portfolio.

Senate Bill 1 was designed in much the same way. At the depths of the housing crisis in 2010, cash-strapped governments resisted the higher payments needed to shore up the fund. So the bill front-loaded the cuts to benefits, and backloaded the contribution hikes, phasing them in over the next eight years. That spared governments a cost they could ill afford in the midst of the Great Recession.

At board meeting after board meeting — even as trustees mulled reductions to the rate of return — they acknowledged the political reality. Such decisions would make PERA’s funding look worse, and they couldn’t count on the government to make up the difference. And just like in the 2000s, the chronic underfunding put PERA at greater risk when market and demographic conditions changed.

“(It’s the) same reason you should care if you get behind on your 30-year mortgage,” said Turner, a former chief accountant for the Securities and Exchange Commission. “The further you fall behind, the greater the pain trying to catch up, and the sooner you face foreclosure.”

A partisan divide

At the legislature, Democrats consistently agreed with PERA’s decision to wait for the 2010 reforms to ramp up. Republicans didn’t. And Gov. John Hickenlooper largely stayed out of it.

State Treasurer Walker Stapleton, who is now running as a Republican for governor, led the fight for reform, saying the board’s assumptions were akin to wishing for “lollipops and rainbows.” Year after year, he supported bills offered by Republican lawmakers to change the makeup of the board, raise the retirement age, cut benefits and freeze taxpayer contributions.

Many of the GOP proposals were deemed extreme and fiscally irresponsible by opponents — derided as political statements that ignored financial reality. But even moderate tweaks to benefits — some of which mirrored the board’s own suggestions in 2009 — were dismissed as unnecessary.

“It was always that everything was OK,” said Sen. Kevin Priola, R-Henderson, who is in bipartisan talks to craft this year’s reform bill. “What frustrated me was I kind of got the feeling it was a scene out of ‘The Wizard of Oz.’ ‘Don’t look behind here, everything’s OK.’ ”

Sen. Daniel Kagan, a Democrat from Cherry Hills Village, was among those who supported Senate Bill 1 but opposed efforts to make changes afterward without PERA’s support.

“We have to be careful not to overburden taxpayers and not overburden employees and not overburden retirees — and it’s a (delicate) balance,” Kagan said. “…It’s very important for the state to not try to time markets or overreact prematurely to changes.”

Another warning, glossed over

By 2015, it was clear that more changes were on the horizon.

In January, the board’s auditor, Milliman, passed along some sobering recommendations. The takeaway: PERA would have less money, yet owe more more in benefits.

That fall, five board members pushed for a review of PERA’s investment assumptions. But a majority on the board voted to wait until 2016 to do so.

Nevertheless, PERA still had an opportunity to sound the alarm — a five-year progress report on Senate Bill 1 was due to the legislature by the end of 2015. But rather than stressing that PERA was projected to miss its 30-year goal, the report highlighted that Senate Bill 1 was arguably ahead of schedule — under more optimistic assumptions that its financial experts no longer believed.

“As a result of the innovated shared sacrifices and reforms made to PERA by SB 1, PERA is once again sustainable for the long term,” the report concluded.

The board’s chairwoman at the time, Maryann Motza, echoed that sentiment in her letter to PERA members in the annual financial report released the following summer, writing that the report’s “main takeaway” was that the reforms “provide PERA with the resources it needs now and into the future.”

The financial statements in the 232-page document told a different story. An anemic 1.5 percent investment return had pushed the path to full funding out to 42 years for most state agencies and 44 years for school districts. The reforms were expected to miss their 30-year target badly — and that was before the board in 2016 adopted the new mortality tables and lowered the rate of return to 7.25 percent.

“They would always point to the five-year report: Let’s not do anything until five years,” Priola said. “…But things were looking great for the five-year report.”

Ron Baker, PERA’s interim executive director, acknowledges there was a disconnect between the report’s positive message and what PERA knew was coming. He says the report was designed to be a look back instead of forward, and PERA didn’t yet know how dramatically the changes would affect the system’s funding.

“Yeah, we knew (that changes were coming) … but we were not ready yet to say ‘fire,’ without having some solution that would not have everybody in an uproar,” Baker said. “…I’ll agree the report didn’t do that — probably purposely.”

“Lessons learned”

Today, PERA views what transpired over the last 18 years as “lessons learned.”

“With the benefit of hindsight, could we have spoken louder about this? Absolutely,” said Tim O’Brien, the board’s current chair. “I think we are where we are, and I don’t think anybody wants to see it deteriorate.”

The reform package the board recommended to state lawmakers this fall mimics Senate Bill 1 in substance, raising the retirement age and cutting benefits, while increasing contributions from public employees and taxpayers. But it diverges in its implementation. Higher contributions would take effect all at once, instead of ramping up over time. And it would automatically adjust contributions and benefits as needed if the system strays from its funding targets.

If adopted, that would sidestep the dilemma that has vexed PERA in the past. Fiscal prudence demands a swift response to changing market conditions. But convincing lawmakers and 566,000 members that changes are needed is a slow process.

“I think that we’ve been bitten by (our messaging) a little bit,” Baker said. “Because I think the perception of folks is ‘Well, you fixed it in 2010. You said it fixed it.’ And well, we fixed it from running out of money — not that it was never to be adjusted again.”

Walker Stapleton is once again tapping his Bush family ties to raise big money in the Colorado governor’s race.

The Republican candidate’s campaign is hosting a Feb. 22 fundraiser in Dallas featuring former President George W. Bush and first lady Laura Bush as the special guests, according to an event invitation.

To attend the event, top donors are being asked to give $1,150 a person — the maximum contribution for the primary and general election in Colorado. The minimum ticket costs $575.

The host committee includes a list of prominent Texas families and business leaders, many of whom helped elect Bush to the White House.

Stapleton, the two-term state treasurer, is a second cousin to Bush. His father, Craig Roberts Stapleton, was an ownership partner with Bush in the Texas Rangers baseball team and served as ambassador to France from 2005 to 2009. Stapleton’s mother, Dorothy Walker Stapleton, is a cousin to former President George H.W. Bush.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush earlier gave $1,000 to Better Colorado Now, the independent, super PAC-styled committee helping to elect Stapleton.

The Bush family ties may help Stapleton dominate the money race, but his opponents have used the connection to attack him in the Republican primary.

In a statement, a Stapleton spokesman, Michael Fortney, said the campaign “is committed to raising the funds necessary to win in November and stand up for Colorado families.”

Welcome to The Spot, where The Denver Post’s politics team captures what’s happening this week — from the Colorado legislature to Denver city hall, with a stop through the halls of Congress in Washington, D.C. Each Thursday, our reporters and editors will break down what we’ve covered and what to watch for in the days ahead.

Let’s get right to it.

While the Colorado legislature was again busy dealing with the political fallout from sexual harassment allegations against several lawmakers, Congress narrowly avoided another shutdown (kind of) and began more debate about immigration. Meanwhile, in Denver, affordable housing is meeting the development boom in the River North Art District and down south in Douglas County there’s more big news in the school system.

Here’s what you need to know:

ROLL CALL

This week, to kick things off, we’re going to let our team introduce themselves by telling you what they’ve been covering (click a name to follow them on Twitter).

COLORADO: THE STATEHOUSE & BEYOND

Brian Eason

•  Within months of state lawmakers declaring that they’d fixed the state pension’s funding crisis in 2010, there were already clear warning signs that the “fix” might not work. That’s one of the key takeaways from our deep dive into the Public Employees’ Retirement Association, which found that lawmakers and the PERA board ignored numerous red flags in the last eight years. So why should you care? As one board member put it, PERA’s like a mortgage: “the further you fall behind, the greater the pain trying to catch up, and the sooner you face foreclosure.” And now all of us — taxpayers, public employees and retirees — are being asked to pay that $32 billion tab.
• Republicans aren’t going to cut your state income taxes by $365 million this year or criminalize abortion. And Democrats aren’t going to adopt the strictest renewable energy requirements in the country, or create expansive new social programs for the middle class. But that’s not going to stop them from trying.

John Frank

• In a week’s time, the sexual harassment scandal spiraled into chaos. First, Democrats demanded Sen. Randy Baumgardner’s resignation.  Then a once-secret complaint against Sen. Larry Crowder came to light. Senate President Kevin Grantham said a resolution in Baumgardner’s case would come soon. But when it did, it only escalated what’s increasingly becoming a partisan conflict.
• It’s still early in the Colorado governor’s race, but Walker Stapleton is playing an ace card to raise campaign cash — former President George W. Bush, according to an exclusive Denver Post report.

Jesse Paul

• Republican members of a powerful legislative budget committee this week voted to withhold funding for the Colorado Civil Rights Commission. Yes, that panel at the center of the U.S. Supreme Court case between a gay couple and a Lakewood baker. Democrats raised a fury over the move, but the GOP said it was a routine action, that they think the commission is important and that the other side was just playing politics. It was clear this week that the controversy wasn’t going to soon fade.
• A new bill seeks to prevent the anguish the widow of a Colorado state trooper felt two years ago when her husband was killed in the line of duty. It extends the time a family of a fallen worker can collect benefits to a year from a month max. The measure has bipartisan support and  has cruised past its first hurdles.
• If you want to get your civic engagement on next week, Congressman Mike Coffman, R-Aurora, is having a town hall in Greenwood Village.

DENVER & THE SUBURBS

John Aguilar

• The Jefferson County commissioner seat that has been empty since last month, when Don Rosier stepped down to take a job with Sterling Ranch in Douglas County, has been filled with Republican Party appointee Tina Francone. Francone was a board director with the Regional Transportation District so now there’s a seat looking to get filled at the top levels of RTD.  
• Oil and gas get a lot of play in Colorado, but this week the sun shone on the solar sector with the revelation that Arapahoe County could soon play host to the state’s second-largest solar farm. This facility could have more than 330,000 panels in place and the capacity to power more than 16,000 homes.   
• The eight-year case of a Highlands Ranch student with autism whose parents accused the Douglas County School District of not providing him an adequate education hit a big milestone Monday, when a federal judge ordered the district to cover the cost of Endrew F.’s special-needs curriculum at a private school. Find out how a U.S. Supreme ruling from nearly a year ago drove the latest twist in this long-running public school saga.
• Have you been one of the many hoping for a resolution to the ongoing hang-up with the University of Colorado A-Line flaggers and the yet-to-open G-Line to Wheat Ridge? We should get some insights this week on a future course for both rail lines when RTD goes before a judge with the Colorado Public Utilities Commission to convince him that technology at multiple crossings along both lines is safe and ready for prime time.

Jon Murray

• As the Winter Olympics unfolds in PyeongChang, Denver is considering whether to launch its own bid to host a future Winter Games. Last week, we learned that, due to the U.S. Olympic Committee’s preference, a 2026 bid is out. But 2030 is still very much in play, and Denver’s exploratory committee is forging ahead toward a potential decision in coming weeks.
• A year ago, Mayor Michael Hancock touted a new appointee as a cornerstone of his stepped-up affordable housing strategy. This week, Erik Soliván called it quits — amid a shakeup that gave his office new oversight.
• The new executive director of the Colorado Department of Transportation, Mike Lewis, has a storied background as the one-time director of Boston’s $14.8 billion Central Artery/Tunnel Project, also known as the Big Dig. As CDOT prepares to marshal the Interstate 70 project through Denver, that history has drawn attention, both for the Boston project’s amazing scope — and for its notorious delays and cost overruns.
• In a historic vote, the Denver City Council on Monday approved the city’s first-ever offering of a height incentive to developers if they provide for affordable housing as part of their projects. The move will allow height boosts up to 16 stories in parts of the fast-redeveloping River North Art District. But the public debate reflected deep frustration with city officials’ attempts to address the downsides of Denver’s population boom.

D.C. POLITICS FROM A COLORADO PERSPECTIVE

Mark K. Matthews

• It’s no secret that the outdoor recreation industry is a fast-growing behemoth. But a government report out Wednesday says the sector accounted for an estimated 2 percent of the country’s gross domestic product last year — with $374 billion in economic activity. Both the study and the big number are a sign that the industry is gaining clout on Wall Street and Capitol Hill.
• Congressman Mike Coffman is calling for the resignation of the Veterans Administration chief. There’s a trip to Europe involved and a tweet to President Donald Trump.
• Colorado’s U.S. Sens. Michael Bennet and Cory Gardner are known for working together despite being from different parties. Now they are joining forces with their own plan for immigration reform. Oh, and to be goofy dads in this Facebook video supporting Colorado’s Olympians.

THE WIRE

Here are some stories from around the state, region and U.S. we think you should check out:

• A leading GOP state lawmaker says he helped move legislation along in a Colorado statehouse committee only because a fellow Republican thought it would help in his primary race. — The Daily Sentinel
• Denver Public Works has a new tool in its arsenal as it fights E. coli and other contaminants in the South Platte River. It has started zapping bacteria with UV lights in the city’s first UV vault, installed near 36th Street and Arkins Court. — KDVR/Fox 31
• Democrats in a bunch of red states think legal marijuana can help them to victory. Here’s a look at the election politics of marijuana. — Politico
• Our neighbors to the west in Utah are looking to take action against opioid makers through a bill that would force their attorney general to sue painkiller manufacturers. Colorado has a host of bills up for consideration to try and halt the opioid crisis. — The Salt Lake Tribune
• As part of its infrastructure plans, the Trump administration is weighing whether to sell of federal assets like roads and airport. Here’s a look at what might soon be for sale. — The Washington Post
• It’s not just Colorado — more than a decade after the Great Recession, most lawmakers across the country are still having a hard time balancing their state’s budget. — Stateline 
• In south Denver, the residents of Southmoor Park are proud NIMBYs, famously insisting against a direct connection to a light rail station that’s right behind their neighborhood. Here’s an interesting look at new fights on the horizon. — Denverite

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If Cynthia Coffman is to become Colorado’s next governor, the current attorney general first must convince a small circle of Republican activists that she’s conservative enough to qualify for the GOP primary — let alone win it.

It won’t be an easy sell. To pull it off, Coffman is aligning herself with President Donald Trump and immigration hardliner Tom Tancredo to bolster her conservative bona fides even as she faces questions about her views on abortion and gay rights.

The strategy gets its first test March 6, when party die-hards huddle at neighborhood caucus meetings across the state. She’ll need their support at the Republican Party assembly in April, where she must get at least 30 percent of the 4,206 delegates to qualify for the June primary.

Coffman successfully used the same process in 2014 to make the ballot for attorney general, and this time she has the added advantage of being the only statewide elected Republican who is pursuing this path in the governor’s race.

But her moderate record on litmus-test social issues could diminish her support, particularly given that the assembly is dominated by party insiders with a history of supporting hardline conservatives.

How she fares will significantly influence the GOP race for governor and may send broader signals about the current mood of the Republican Party in Colorado.

One standout issue for Coffman is gay rights. In 2017, Coffman stood with Democrats on the Capitol steps and claimed she was the only Republican attorney general to take part in an LGBT PrideFest event.

She also called on legislators to outlaw so-called conversion therapies, and her office went to the U.S. Supreme Court to defend the state’s decision to punish a Lakewood baker who refused to make a wedding cake for a gay couple.

Alone, her views are not necessarily a deal-killer, as attitudes toward gay rights among Republicans have shifted considerably in recent years.

More problematic may be her stance on abortion.

Coffman tries to resist labels on the issue, and she described her position in an interview as “a Libertarian view that a woman should have a right to have an abortion that is legally guaranteed by the Supreme Court decision.”

One former Republican candidate for governor said Coffman’s positions on abortion and gay rights could make her a tough candidate in a general election race — but they may prevent her from getting the 30 percent needed to make the ballot.

“Those two things alone would sink anyone at an assembly (vote) — even to the no-name (candidates) that are there,” said former state Sen. Greg Brophy.

Mark Otteman, a longtime delegate from Flagler, said he hopes to be one of those assembly voters again. “There are some issues that she and I differ on, and I’m not sure if I will be able to support her,” he said, calling Coffman’s abortion views “something that’s always a concern for me.”

Coffman acknowledged the dynamic but remains confident in her decision just weeks ago to take the caucus route. “I think there are a lot of people I can appeal to; I did it before, and I believe I can do it again,” she said.

Coffman’s ballot path driven by money, or a lack of it

There is another way to qualify for the ballot. Coffman could petition her way into the primary by gathering 10,500 signatures from Republican voters — a more expensive but less risky option that her top opponent, GOP State Treasurer Walker Stapleton, is pursuing.

That route reduces the chance of a conservative-fueled upset at the April 14 assembly, where Coffman will face lesser-known candidates, including Larimer County Commissioner Lew Gaiter; former Trump campaign official Steve Barlock; and former Parker mayor Greg Lopez, who also was the state director for the U.S. Small Business Administration.

Any of them could have a breakout moment, if the 2016 election is any indication. That year, little-known El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn won a place on the primary ballot for U.S. Senate after a rousing speech in which he called himself an “unapologetic, Christian, constitutional conservative, pro-life, Second Amendment-loving American.”

Coffman is taking the assembly gamble for two reasons: Her fundraising so far has fallen short of the amount needed to do a petition drive; and the exit of Tancredo from the governor’s race has given her an opening — as the immigration hardliner and former congressman was the favorite going into the assembly.

Tancredo ended his bid in January, citing fundraising concerns, but the same worries apply to Coffman. She raised just $85,000 in her first two months as a candidate and has struggled to launch a campaign, while Stapleton set fundraising records with a $750,000 haul last quarter.

Dick Wadhams, a political strategist and former Republican Party chairman, last week spoke at a political forum at the University of Denver, where he lauded Coffman as “an outstanding candidate” but called her campaign “incompetent.”

“I have been bewildered by her inability to understand the difference between running for attorney general and running for something of the magnitude of governor of Colorado,” he said, comparing it to “going from single-A baseball to the major leagues.”

Steve Welchert, a Democratic strategist at the forum, said he wouldn’t be surprised to see her miss the ballot. “Frankly, from the Democratic perspective, she is the one candidate that would scare Democrats,” he said.

Coffman still lacks a campaign manager and only recently hired Allegiance Strategies as her consultant. The Republican outfit, based in Washington, D.C., does limited work for candidates, and the firm’s president serves as a senior adviser to a prominent pro-LGBT political action committee.

In an interview, she dismissed any concerns about her campaign. “I won the last time with the same campaign structure,” she said.

Coffman raised about $510,000 that year but benefited from about $2.9 million in support from the Republican Attorneys General Association, according to state records.

Even if social issues divide Coffman and the assembly delegates, she hopes to reach common ground by emphasizing the issue of immigration.

On the day Tancredo quit, she applauded his opposition to “unchecked and unaccountable sanctuary cities,” a term used by conservatives to describe municipalities that they contend are thwarting federal immigration authorities.

“People are concerned about sanctuary cities’ policies, and right now, when conversation turns to immigration, it’s about safety and security,” Coffman said. “And those are issues, as a law enforcement official, I deal with every day.”

Coffman also is talking more about Trump on the campaign trail. She touts the new tax law he championed as well as his focus on illegal immigration — although she said, “We don’t have the same style politically.”

The emphasis may help endear her to Republican voters. Recent surveys of Republican voters by Magellan Strategies, a Colorado-based polling and consulting firm, found that immigration was far and away their top priority. The polls also noted entrenched GOP support for Trump.

“I think folks are generally open-minded,” she said. Even if they don’t agree on abortion, she added, they say, “I can agree with you on the rule of law, on how to (deal with) transportation and immigration and growth, so I can vote for you, I can see you being the governor.”